Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory

In this article, we define a new construct for urban economic and investment analysis, which revisits the conventional wisdom that investment in real estate development is riskier than investment in stabilized property assets. This new construct, referred as a “development asset value index” (DAVI), is a value index for newly developed properties (only) in a given geographical property market. It tracks longitudinal changes in the highest and best use (HBU) value of locations, and it reveals developer and landowner behavior taking advantage of the optionality inherent in land ownership. In particular, the DAVI reflects developers' use of flexibility in the exercise of the call option to (re)develop the property to any legal use and density. We empirically estimate a DAVI for commercial property (i.e., central locations) and compare it with a corresponding traditional transaction‐price‐based property asset price index (PAPI) corrected for depreciation. We believe that the difference primarily reflects the realized value of flexibility in land development. We find that the DAVIs display greater value growth and are smoother over time and less cyclical than their corresponding PAPIs for the same locations. This suggests that developers successfully use flexibility, and that development may be riskier than stabilized property investment due primarily only to leverage effects (construction costs). Practical implications are also discussed.     

Assessing Industrial Buyer Preferences: Using the Swait-Louviere Test to Test the Key Informant Assumption

When using professional buyers to study an organizations buying behavior an important consideration is whether their preferences reflect those of the organization. Since this is a key informant problem, the present article focuses on the issue of the degree to which key informants can be used to provide insights into their own organizations preferences. We conduct a direct test of the key informant assumption using the Swait-Louviere test. In this test preferences from a choice experiment using actual buyers, and from market decisions made by the organization, are estimated separately, then jointly in multinomial logit models. We found that buyers experimental preferences were similar to estimates obtained from the market decisions. Buyers preferences were closer to the intuitive preferences of the organizations top executives than the estimates based on past market decisions, although a model based on the combined data outperformed either. We discuss the implications of these results for industrial buying research.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Contracting Under Endogenous Risk

Agents make decisions by trading off cost, return and risk. The literature, however, does not consider the impact of risk on action choice. We show that this tradeoff has important implications for the firm. First, the firm may provide no insurance in the salary. Since the agents action choice will determine her risk, the salary cannot compensate her for it. Second, the firm may not be able to design an incentive scheme to implement particularly risky actions. Finally, the firm may not be able to design a scheme in which the agent splits her effort across multiple tasks. This is particularly problematic for tasks that are technological substitutes.     

State support to small stores: A Nordic form of consumer policy

From the early 1970s, the Governments of Finland, Norway, and Sweden have shown considerable concern for the plight of rural consumers consequent on the closure of small stores in sparsely populated areas. In each country, special commissions were established to consider the consequences of retail concentration and legislation has been introduced to provide aid to small retail business in rural areas. The paper examines the background to this legislation and compares and contrasts the measures adopted in each of the three countries. While the policies attempt to improve the viability of rural small stores, it is argued that the measures are essentially a special type of consumer policy and that not only is there a need for more research into the effectiveness of the policies, but that perhaps the measures ought to be extended somewhat, particularly to protect the interests of consumers in urban areas.

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Staatliche Unterstützung des kleinen Einzelhandels: eine skandinavische Form von Verbraucherpolitik

Zusammenfassung Die Regierungen Finnlands, Norwegen und Schwedens befassen sich seit etwa zhen Jahren mit der Situation von Verbrauchern in dünn besiedelten ländlichen Gebieten, die sich durch das Verschwinden kleiner Ladengeschäfte verschlechtert. Es wurden Kommissionen zur Untersuchung der Auswirkungen der Konzentration im Einzelhandel gebildet und Gesetze zur Förderung des kleinen Einzelhandels in ländlichen Gebieten erlassen. Dieser Beitrag behandelt den Hintergrund dieser Entwicklung und vergleicht die in den drei Ländern angewendeten staatlichen Maßnahmen, die in ihrem Kern als eine spezielle Form von Verbraucherpolitik betrachtet werden.Der Hintergrund für solche Stützungsmaßnahmen ist gekennzeichnet durch strukturelle Veränderungen im Einzelhandel seit dem 2. Weltkrieg. Seit den 50er Jahren und verstärkt in den Jahren zwischen 1960 und 1973 ging die Zahl der traditionellen Gemischtwarenläden um bis zu 50% zurück. Die Konzentration hat dazu geführt, daß der Kolonialwarenhandel von drei bis vier Ladenketten bestimmt wird und viele ländliche Gemeinden gar keinen oder nur noch einen einzigen örtlichen Laden besitzen.Um dieser Entwicklung entgegenzuwirken, bieten alle drei Staaten Investitionszulagen für die Modernisierung und Vergrößerung von Ladengeschäften. Norwegen und Schweden gewährt darüber hinaus auch Zuschüsse zu den laufenden Kosten. Abbildung 1 (S. 200) gibt einen Überblick über die Unterschiede, die zwischen den drei Ländern bestehen, jeweils im Bereich der staatlichen Maßnahmen, der Voraussetzungen, an die die staatliche Unterstützung geknüpft sind, und der verwaltungstechnischen Abwicklung.Die Betrachtung der Auswirkungen der Unterstützungsprogramme ergibt, daß in Norwegen nahezu 50% der infragekommenden Geschäfte eine Unterstützung erhielten und das Ladensterben im Laufe der Jahre von jährlich etwa 650 auf jetzt etwa jährlich 300 verringert werden konnte. In Finnland wurden bis Ende 1977 109 Geschäfte unterstützt; außerdem richtete die Regierung 10 neue Läden ein und kaufte zusätzlich 113 mobile Verkaufsstellen. In Schweden bekamen in den ersten vier Jahren 97 Läden eine Unterstützung, durch die für 20 000 Verbraucher in ländlichen Gegenden und weitere 5000 Feriengäste die Möglichkeit notwendiger Einkäufe gesichert werden konnte.Der Beitrag plädiert für eine Erweiterung der bisherigen Maßnahmen, um auch die tieferen Probleme des kleinen Einzelhandels angehen zu können. Er stellt dabei die wichtige soziale und wirtschaftliche Rolle heraus, die der kleine Laden im ländlichen und im städtischen Bereich übernimmt. Insofern wird der skandinavischen Gesetzgebung Modellcharakter auch für andere moderne Volkswirtschaften zugesprochen.Der Beitrag schließt ab mit einigen Vorschlägen für künftige Forschung und stellt dabei vor allem heraus (a) die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse der staatlichen Maßnahmen, (b) die Untersuchung der Reaktionen der Händler auf die Förderungsprogramme und der Auswirkungen auf die geförderten Geschäfte und (c) die Analyse der Einstellungen und des Verhaltens der Verbraucher gegenüber kleineren Geschäften, um zu ermitteln, ob diese Geschäfte den Ansprüchen und den Bedürfnissen der örtlichen Kundschaft tatsächlich besser entsprechen. Darüber hinaus richtet sich ein eher theoretisches Interesse auf die Eigenschaften, die eine Volkswirtschaft aufweisen sollte, wenn die Unterstützung des kleinen Einzelhandels zugleich ein erfolgreiches verbraucherpolitisches Instrument sein soll.

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Knut Ekhaugen is Head of Department for Economic Research, Norwegian Productivity Institute, Akersgt. 64, Oslo 1, Norway. Sigmund Grønmo is Research Director, Norwegian Fund for Market and Distribution Research, Fredensborgveien 24, Oslo 1, Norway; and Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Oslo, Blindern, Oslo 3, Norway. David Kirby is Senior Lecturer in Geography and Director of the Small Shops Research Unit at St. David's University College, University of Wales, Lampeter. Currently he is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Norwegian Fund for Market and Distribution Research, Oslo.     

Localized advantage in a global economy: The case of Bangalore

This article examines how and why firms in Bangalore, a city in southern India, have achieved success in the global software industry. We use Porter's “diamond framework” to analyze information obtained from secondary sources and interviews with engineers, managers, and top executives from software firms and officials involved in Bangalore's development. While we found some aspects of the case conform to Porter's framework, many other elements tend to diverge from the model. Thus, the article contributes to the Porter's diamond model literature by extending its application to assessing the development of successful regions in knowledge‐based industries in developing economies. The discussion in the article would be of value to officials interested in creating such successful regions, as well as international business executives interested in the opportunities afforded by locating in these regions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Incorporating satisfaction measures into a restaurant productivity index

The increasing stature of the foodservice industry in the global service economy suggests that productivity analyses—similar to those performed in non-service-based settings—would benefit multi-unit operators by maximizing their desirable operational outcomes while minimizing expenses and other detrimental conditions such as low job satisfaction. This paper suggests that such analyses might be possible through the application of a holistic productivity metric—one that includes traditional operational variables such as revenue, profit, food cost, and labor cost, and previously ignored variables such as guest and employee satisfaction as well as retention equity. Through data gathered from a single chain's 36 corporate-owned, same-brand casual-theme restaurants located in metropolitan centers across the United States, we found that factors leading to maximum outputs such as controllable profit and retention equity include employee satisfaction in addition to expected variables such as cost of goods sold and number of seats. Most notably, employee satisfaction as an input proved to be the most volatile variable in maximizing operational outputs.     

The self-catering accommodation sector in Yorkshire,England

Little baseline data exist concerning the outlook and business practices of those operating in the self-catering accommodation sector. Drawing on a survey of operators in Yorkshire, England, this paper finds a concentration of micro-enterprises that are unsophisticated in their approach to managing their business. The findings pose challenges to those agencies charged with enhancing the competitiveness of the sector.     

The effects of new firm formation on regional development over time: The case of Great Britain

This paper re-examines the link between new firm formation and subsequent employment growth. It investigates whether it is possible to have the wrong type of entrepreneurship—defined as new firm formation which leads to zero or even negative subsequent employment growth. It uses a very similar approach to that of Fritsch and Mueller (Regional Studies, 38(8), 961–976, 2004), confirming their findings that the employment impact of new firm formation is in three discrete phases. Then, using data for Great Britain, the paper shows the employment impact of new firm formation is significantly positive in the high-enterprise counties of Great Britain. However, for the low-enterprise counties, it shows that new firm formation has a negative effect on employment. Of the 15 low-enterprise regions, eight are Scottish (of nine Scottish regions in our data base) and three are North East Counties (of four). Our findings imply that having the “wrong type of entrepreneurship” is indeed possible.

Exploring alternative strategic management paradigms in high-growth ethnic and non-ethnic family firms

The primary research question examined in this paper is whether ethnic and non-ethnic family firms in the United Kingdom differ in their strategy-making. The paper uses the typology of strategic decision-making produced by Whittington [(1993). What is strategy: and does it matter? New York: Routledge] to derive contrasting predictions of strategy-making by ethnic versus non-ethnic firms. Drawing on a questionnaire study of 76 high-growth family firms, and subsequent in-depth fieldwork with 40 of these, the findings show that the ethnic origin of the controlling family has a significant influence in determining the dominance of a particular strategy paradigm. However, successful high-growth family firms are not associated with any particular school of strategy. The influence of family bonding on strategy-making was greater in ethnic family firms than non-ethnic family firms. The advent of the second generation of South Asians in family firms, and closer integration of immigrant and host communities, has not altered these apparent differences. The findings challenge researchers on family firms to adopt a multiple perspective approach to strategy-making.